Naira FX Weekly Market Analysis
1. General Overview
Between late May and early September 2025, the naira strengthened moderately against the US dollar, moving from ₦1,615/$ (May 26) to ₦1,521/$ (September 7). This represents a net appreciation of about ₦94 in just over three months, reflecting improved supply conditions and cautious market optimism.
However, the movement was not linear — the market saw phases of volatility, sharp intra-week swings, and periods of sideways trading.
2. Key Weekly Trends
Week of May 26 – June 2
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Starting at ₦1,615/$, the naira appreciated slightly to ₦1,608/$.
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Trend:
Gradual strengthening as demand pressure eased. -
Drivers: Post-holiday inflows, tighter CBN monitoring of BDCs.
June (3 – 23)
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The exchange rate fluctuated between ₦1,611 and ₦1,577.
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By 23 June, the naira hit ₦1,577/$ — a major improvement.
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Trend:
Sustained appreciation as oil receipts improved and speculators exited positions.
Late June – Early July (25 June – 7 July)
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Sharp volatility: ₦1,560 → ₦1,554 → ₦1,540.
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By 7 July, the naira rebounded to ₦1,554/$.
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Trend: ↔ Mixed performance with speculative play.
Mid-July – August (8 July – 18 Aug)
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Naira traded steadily in the ₦1,540–₦1,565 range.
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Temporary weakness observed in early August (₦1,550 → ₦1,543).
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By 18 Aug, the rate stabilized at ₦1,541/$.
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Trend: Stable consolidation with gradual appreciation.
Late August – Early September (19 Aug – 7 Sept)
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Naira drifted downward, closing ₦1,538 → ₦1,521/$.
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By 7 Sept, the naira reached ₦1,521/$, marking one of the strongest closes since April.
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Trend:
Strengthening momentum driven by steady CBN supply, oil earnings, and reduced panic buying.
3. Market Activity & Drivers
CBN interventions: Increased FX auctions and closer monitoring of BDCs helped stabilize volatility.
Oil price recovery: Higher crude oil sales boosted inflows and supported reserves.
Demand management: Import restrictions and cautious dollar demand moderated pressure.
Speculation decline: Many traders reduced hoarding, sensing stronger naira outlook.
External sentiment: Positive investor outlook on Nigeria’s fiscal reforms improved medium-term confidence.
4. Outlook (Sept 2nd Week Onwards)
The naira shows signs of short-term stability, with resistance at ₦1,550/$ and support around ₦1,520/$.
If oil receipts remain strong and the CBN sustains interventions, naira could trade within ₦1,500–₦1,540/$ range in the near term.
Risks: Global oil price shocks, import backlogs, or sudden demand surges could reverse gains.
Summary:
The naira appreciated steadily over the last 12 weeks, showing resilience and tighter market discipline. With the rate at ₦1,521/$ (7 Sept 2025), it has recovered from its late-May weakness, positioning itself for short-term stability, provided reforms and supply hold firm.
1 Comment
Great update 😁